Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints22
- Tre JonesAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds8
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints30
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–115
- Q40.8Timberwolves offensive team rebound120–115
- Q40.8Anthony Edwards misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot120–115
- Q43.5Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2120–115
- Q43.5Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2119–115
- Q43.5Bones Hyland enters the game for Julius Randle118–115
- Q43.5Julius Randle personal take foul118–115
- Q44.9Coby White defensive rebound118–115
- Q49.2Anthony Edwards misses 23-foot turnaround jump shot118–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:49Anthony Edwards makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Julius Randle assists)CHI 109 – 112 MIN · MIN 66% → 83% +17MIN 66% → 83%+17 pts
- Q41:37Jalen Smith makes 1-foot dunk (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 111 – 112 MIN · CHI 16% → 34% +18CHI 16% → 34%+18 pts
- Q41:17Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Julius Randle assists)CHI 111 – 115 MIN · MIN 67% → 92% +25MIN 67% → 92%+25 pts
- Q41:06Coby White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 114 – 115 MIN · CHI 7% → 33% +26CHI 7% → 33%+26 pts
- Q431.1Tre Jones makes driving layup (Coby White assists)CHI 116 – 115 MIN · CHI 28% → 67% +38CHI 28% → 67%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -9.5
- ML CHI +295 / MIN -375
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.2%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -312
- CHI +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 115.0 – 124.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +21 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +141 Elo | MIN 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 120.13rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 115.012th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.1 | Margin | +5.15th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 116.36th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 111.49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Pace | 102.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–13 | Road vs home | 15–67th of 30 |
| 30th of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 148923rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301460 | Elo rating | 15965th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–22 | 19–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 14–20 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.