Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Quinten PostPoints13
- Pat SpencerAssists6
- Gui SantosRebounds10
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints18
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game83–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter83–108
- Q415.8Malevy Leons makes driving layup83–108
- Q422.3Warriors offensive team rebound81–108
- Q423.6Malevy Leons misses 9-foot fade away jump shot81–108
- Q438.2Joan Beringer makes dunk (Jaylen Clark assists)81–108
- Q442.6Jaylen Clark defensive rebound81–106
- Q444.8Pat Spencer misses 10-foot fade away jump shot81–106
- Q41:03Johnny Juzang bad pass
turnover (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)81–106
- Q41:09Pat Spencer bad pass
turnover (Rob Dillingham steals)81–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:43Quinten Post makes 24-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)GS 14 – 8 MIN · GS 35% → 42% +6GS 35% → 42%+6 pts
- Q211:47Quinten Post makes 27-foot three point jumper (Will Richard assists)GS 23 – 21 MIN · GS 29% → 35% +6GS 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q210:43Moses Moody makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 26 – 23 MIN · GS 31% → 38% +7GS 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q29:28Bones Hyland makes 25-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)GS 28 – 28 MIN · MIN 62% → 68% +7MIN 62% → 68%+7 pts
- Q25:40Bones Hyland makes 25-foot running jump shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)GS 34 – 37 MIN · MIN 67% → 74% +7MIN 67% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML GS +240 / MIN -298
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.7%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -255
- GS +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 109.0 – 117.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIN and GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −95 | −49 | GS: Missing LJ Cryer −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +54 Elo | MIN 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 119.24th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 115.012th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.2 | Margin | +4.28th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 115.37th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.8 | Pace | 102.710th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 309–14 | Road vs home | 15–810th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301583 | Elo rating | 155610th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−95 Elo- LJ Cryer tightness left hamstring−2 Elo
Timberwolves
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–24 | 19–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 14–22 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–19 | 22–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 5–9 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
- Jan 25GS 111 @ MIN 85Picked MIN 64%Miss
- Dec 12MIN 127 @ GS 120Picked GS 63%Miss
- May 14GS 110 @ MIN 121PlayoffsPicked MIN 77%Hit
- May 12MIN 117 @ GS 110PlayoffsPicked MIN 64%Hit
- May 10MIN 102 @ GS 97PlayoffsPicked MIN 66%Hit
- May 8GS 93 @ MIN 117PlayoffsPicked MIN 81%Hit
- May 6GS 99 @ MIN 88PlayoffsPicked MIN 68%Miss
- Jan 15GS 116 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 69%Miss