San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Dylan HarperPoints20
- Stephon CastleAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds8
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints26
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Moussa DiabateRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–111
- Q41.3Kon Knueppel defensive rebound106–111
- Q43.8Devin Vassell misses 26-foot three point jumper106–111
- Q45.3Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound106–111
- Q48.3De'Aaron Fox misses 23-foot three point jumper106–111
- Q410.6Stephon Castle enters the game for Luke Kornet106–111
- Q410.6Spurs Full timeout106–111
- Q410.6Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2106–111
- Q410.6Luke Kornet enters the game for Stephon Castle106–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:30Miles Bridges makes 6-foot floating jump shot (Kon Knueppel assists)SA 98 – 102 CHA · CHA 62% → 76% +13CHA 62% → 76%+13 pts
- Q43:13Victor Wembanyama makes 2-foot dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 100 – 102 CHA · SA 23% → 37% +14SA 23% → 37%+14 pts
- Q42:55Miles Bridges makes 2-foot driving dunk (LaMelo Ball assists)SA 100 – 104 CHA · CHA 64% → 78% +14CHA 64% → 78%+14 pts
- Q42:17Devin Vassell makes 2-foot running pullup jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 102 – 104 CHA · SA 18% → 34% +15SA 18% → 34%+15 pts
- Q41:53Moussa Diabate makes tip shotSA 102 – 106 CHA · CHA 68% → 84% +16CHA 68% → 84%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML SA -166 / CHA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -0.5
- SA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- SA: Elo 47.3%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -150
- CHA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 115.5 – 112.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | +48 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | SA crossed 1 time zone and CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +19 Elo | CHA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 116.315th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 114.813th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +1.612th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 115.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.520th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 9–1322nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148227th of 30 |
| 11th of 301555 | Elo rating | 152813th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–22 | 28–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 18–30 | 20–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–3 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.