San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints28
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds16
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints25
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–99
- Q410.0Clint Capela makes alley oop dunk (Aaron Holiday assists)111–99
- Q420.9Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound111–97
- Q421.3Jordan McLaughlin misses 15-foot pullup jump shot111–97
- Q440.2Clint Capela makes free throw 2 of 2111–97
- Q440.2Lindy Waters III enters the game for Stephon Castle111–96
- Q440.2Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for De'Aaron Fox111–96
- Q440.2Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Keldon Johnson111–96
- Q440.2Carter Bryant enters the game for Victor Wembanyama111–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:01De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointer (Stephon Castle assists)SA 82 – 82 HOU · SA 35% → 47% +12SA 35% → 47%+12 pts
- Q49:00Victor Wembanyama makes 18-foot fade away jump shotSA 91 – 86 HOU · SA 61% → 70% +9SA 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q45:00Dylan Harper makes two point shot (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 99 – 92 HOU · SA 77% → 86% +8SA 77% → 86%+8 pts
- Q44:36Amen Thompson makes two point shot (Kevin Durant assists)SA 99 – 94 HOU · HOU 13% → 21% +8HOU 13% → 21%+8 pts
- Q44:21Harrison Barnes makes 7-foot two point shot (Dylan Harper assists)SA 101 – 94 HOU · SA 79% → 88% +8SA 79% → 88%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML SA +120 / HOU -142
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1.5
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -129
- SA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 109.0 – 111.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +6 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +46 Elo | HOU 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 116.712th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 110.54th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +6.24th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 116.85th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 110.65th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 16–31st of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 12th of 301541 | Elo rating | 15816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–22 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 18–22 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 18–29 | 20–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–7 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Jan 20SA 106 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 61%Hit
- Nov 7HOU 110 @ SA 121Picked HOU 61%Miss
- Feb 26SA 106 @ HOU 118Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Nov 6SA 100 @ HOU 127Picked HOU 70%Hit
- Oct 28HOU 106 @ SA 101Picked HOU 56%Hit
- Oct 26HOU 106 @ SA 109Picked HOU 53%Miss
- Mar 12HOU 103 @ SA 101Picked SA 52%Miss
- Mar 5SA 101 @ HOU 114Picked HOU 59%Hit