New Orleans Pelicans at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints34
- Herbert JonesAssists5
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints40
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–124
- Q42.4Kelly Oubre Jr. defensive rebound114–124
- Q42.4Trey Murphy III misses running pullup jump shot114–124
- Q48.8Trey Murphy III defensive rebound114–124
- Q411.3Joel Embiid misses free throw 2 of 2114–124
- Q411.3Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2114–124
- Q411.3Trey Murphy III personal take foul114–123
- Q412.2Herbert Jones bad pass
turnover (Joel Embiid steals)114–123
- Q413.78 second turnover114–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:55Saddiq Bey makes 28-foot running pullup jump shotNO 102 – 104 PHI · NO 20% → 33% +13NO 20% → 33%+13 pts
- Q46:30Jose Alvarado makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotNO 105 – 104 PHI · NO 33% → 49% +16NO 33% → 49%+16 pts
- Q45:38Joel Embiid makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)NO 107 – 107 PHI · PHI 38% → 56% +18PHI 38% → 56%+18 pts
- Q43:48Joel Embiid makes 6-foot two point shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)NO 109 – 111 PHI · PHI 55% → 69% +14PHI 55% → 69%+14 pts
- Q42:36Dominick Barlow makes running dunk (Tyrese Maxey assists)NO 109 – 113 PHI · PHI 71% → 84% +13PHI 71% → 84%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -6.5
- ML NO +185 / PHI -225
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6.5
- PHI 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 73.7%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -197
- NO +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 114.0 – 120.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1366 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +26 | +22 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Paul George −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +179 Elo | PHI 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 76.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 76.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.4 | Points scored | 116.513th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.9 | Points allowed | 115.816th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.5 | Margin | +0.715th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 112.314th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.3 | Pace | 101.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–18 | Road vs home | 14–1319th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 149520th of 30 |
| 27th of 301366 | Elo rating | 146120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+22 Elo- Paul George suspended by league−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–23 | 27–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–0 | 16–11 |
| Underdog | 22–23 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 4–0 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.