Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Myles TurnerPoints31
- Bobby PortisAssists8
- Bobby PortisRebounds12
76ers- Paul GeorgePoints32
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Joel EmbiidRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–139
- Q413.2Justin Edwards defensive rebound122–139
- Q416.4Pete Nance misses 10-foot floating jump shot122–139
- Q431.5Justin Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)122–139
- Q445.9Pete Nance makes driving layup (Cole Anthony assists)122–136
- Q455.6Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound120–136
- Q41:00Trendon Watford misses 15-foot fade away jump shot120–136
- Q41:2376ers defensive team rebound120–136
- Q41:24Cole Anthony misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot120–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:22Paul George makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Tyrese Maxey assists)MIL 74 – 81 PHI · PHI 78% → 85% +6PHI 78% → 85%+6 pts
- Q35:15VJ Edgecombe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)MIL 84 – 88 PHI · PHI 70% → 78% +8PHI 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q32:50Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)MIL 91 – 94 PHI · MIL 17% → 25% +8MIL 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q31:40Paul George makes 27-foot running jump shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)MIL 91 – 99 PHI · PHI 81% → 88% +7PHI 81% → 88%+7 pts
- Q31:15Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)MIL 93 – 102 PHI · PHI 83% → 90% +6PHI 83% → 90%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -10.5
- ML MIL +300 / PHI -380
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7
- PHI 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 75.5%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -317
- MIL +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 104.5 – 115.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −124 | +47 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +196 Elo | PHI 75.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 78.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 116.116th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 115.816th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.6 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.9 | Pace | 101.517th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 20th of 309–14 | Road vs home | 12–1320th of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 24th of 301435 | Elo rating | 145222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−124 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–25 | 26–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 15–10 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–27 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–2 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Dec 5PHI 116 @ MIL 101Picked PHI 51%Hit
- Nov 20PHI 123 @ MIL 114Picked PHI 54%Hit
- Apr 3MIL 126 @ PHI 113Picked MIL 82%Hit
- Feb 9PHI 127 @ MIL 135Picked PHI 60%Miss
- Jan 19PHI 109 @ MIL 123Picked MIL 84%Hit
- Oct 23MIL 124 @ PHI 109Picked MIL 63%Hit
- Mar 14PHI 105 @ MIL 114Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Feb 25MIL 119 @ PHI 98Picked MIL 51%Hit