Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Julian StrawtherPoints20
- Jalen PickettAssists7
- Zeke NnajiRebounds12
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints22
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–100
- Q40.1Bucks offensive team rebound102–100
- Q40.6Kyle Kuzma misses heave jump shot102–100
- Q41.7Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound102–100
- Q44.5Jalen Pickett misses free throw 2 of 2102–100
- Q44.5Jalen Pickett makes free throw 1 of 2102–100
- Q44.5Gary Harris personal foul101–100
- Q45.4Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three pointer101–100
- Q410.6Bucks Full timeout101–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:05Jalen Pickett makes 27-foot running jump shot (Julian Strawther assists)DEN 59 – 53 MIL · DEN 44% → 54% +10DEN 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q36:42Julian Strawther makes 27-foot three point jumper (Spencer Jones assists)DEN 62 – 55 MIL · DEN 48% → 58% +10DEN 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q429.3Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three pointer (Myles Turner assists)DEN 99 – 97 MIL · MIL <1% → 17% +16MIL <1% → 17%+16 pts
- Q45.4Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three pointerDEN 101 – 100 MIL · MIL <1% → 12% +12MIL <1% → 12%+12 pts
- Q44.5Jalen Pickett makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 102 – 100 MIL · DEN 90% → >99% +9DEN 90% → >99%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -8.5
- ML DEN +260 / MIL -325
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.7%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -275
- DEN +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 102.5 – 111.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1607 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −153 | +19 | DEN: Missing Jamal Murray −71 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +83 Elo | MIL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.1 | Points scored | 112.227th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 115.816th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −3.624th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 111.723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 115.322nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.8 | Pace | 99.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3018–7 | Road vs home | 9–1121st of 30 |
| 29th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301607 | Elo rating | 144224th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−153 Elo- Jamal Murray right hamstring−71 Elo
Bucks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–19 | 19–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–14 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–18 | 17–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–2 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.