Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Dennis SchroderPoints27
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds13
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints40
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–113
- Q41.3Zach LaVine enters the game for Precious Achiuwa111–113
- Q41.3Zach LaVine defensive rebound111–113
- Q41.3Tyrese Maxey misses free throw 1 of 1111–113
- Q41.3Zach LaVine enters the game for111–113
- Q41.3DeMar DeRozan enters the game for Dylan Cardwell111–113
- Q41.3Precious Achiuwa shooting foul111–113
- Q41.3Tyrese Maxey makes 2-foot two point shot (Joel Embiid assists)111–113
- Q45.2Precious Achiuwa enters the game for DeMar DeRozan111–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:30Dennis Schroder makes 27-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 108 – 105 PHI · SAC 42% → 65% +23SAC 42% → 65%+23 pts
- Q41:57Tyrese Maxey makes driving layupSAC 108 – 109 PHI · PHI 46% → 66% +20PHI 46% → 66%+20 pts
- Q41:21Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 111 – 109 PHI · SAC 33% → 69% +36SAC 33% → 69%+36 pts
- Q427.3Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2SAC 111 – 111 PHI · PHI 32% → 53% +21PHI 32% → 53%+21 pts
- Q41.3Tyrese Maxey makes 2-foot two point shot (Joel Embiid assists)SAC 111 – 113 PHI · PHI 51% → >99% +49PHI 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -9.5
- ML SAC +320 / PHI -410
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5.5
- PHI 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 71.2%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -338
- SAC +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 110.0 – 119.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | +45 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +157 Elo | PHI 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 80.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 79.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 116.612th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 115.915th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.3 | Margin | +0.715th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 112.113th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.517th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 29th of 303–20 | Road vs home | 13–1320th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301534 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 26th of 301403 | Elo rating | 145922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–30 | 27–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 16–10 |
| Underdog | 16–28 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–25 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.