Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints34
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints28
- Mikal BridgesAssists5
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–103
- Q48.0shot clock turnover87–103
- Q432.1Domantas Sabonis makes two point shot87–103
- Q432.2Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound85–103
- Q434.0Russell Westbrook misses 26-foot three point jumper85–103
- Q445.8Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot85–103
- Q455.0Mitchell Robinson offensive rebound85–100
- Q457.9Miles McBride misses 22-foot three point jumper85–100
- Q41:19Jalen Brunson defensive rebound85–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:40Karl-Anthony Towns makes 24-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)SAC 72 – 75 NY · NY 70% → 80% +10NY 70% → 80%+10 pts
- Q48:31Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)SAC 74 – 80 NY · NY 79% → 88% +9NY 79% → 88%+9 pts
- Q46:34OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)SAC 78 – 85 NY · NY 83% → 92% +9NY 83% → 92%+9 pts
- Q44:55Russell Westbrook makes 24-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 83 – 87 NY · SAC 7% → 16% +9SAC 7% → 16%+9 pts
- Q44:31Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)SAC 83 – 90 NY · NY 84% → 93% +9NY 84% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -14.5
- ML SAC +550 / NY -800
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- NY: Elo 75.3%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -578
- SAC +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 105.5 – 120.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | −7 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +193 Elo | NY 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 83.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 113.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.2 | Margin | +4.38th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.3 | Defense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.224th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–19 | Road vs home | 17–64th of 30 |
| 1st of 301535 | Opponent Elo | 148328th of 30 |
| 26th of 301409 | Elo rating | 154411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–29 | 22–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 20–20 |
| Underdog | 16–27 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 1–4 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.