Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Malik MonkPoints19
- Domantas SabonisAssists8
- Dylan CardwellRebounds9
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Isaiah StewartRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–139
- Q416.0Devin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2116–139
- Q416.0Devin Carter makes free throw 1 of 2115–139
- Q416.0Bobi Klintman shooting foul114–139
- Q424.6Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2114–139
- Q424.6Pistons offensive team rebound114–138
- Q424.6Daniss Jenkins misses free throw 1 of 2114–138
- Q424.6Nique Clifford personal foul114–138
- Q436.8Chaz Lanier defensive rebound114–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:47Nique Clifford makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 24 – 20 DET · SAC 20% → 25% +5SAC 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q13:49Malik Monk makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)SAC 27 – 24 DET · SAC 19% → 24% +5SAC 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q11:02Jaden Ivey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)SAC 31 – 27 DET · DET 67% → 73% +6DET 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q132.1Daniss Jenkins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)SAC 33 – 30 DET · DET 68% → 75% +6DET 68% → 75%+6 pts
- Q10.6Tobias Harris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)SAC 35 – 35 DET · DET 74% → 80% +5DET 74% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DET -12.5
- ML SAC +470 / DET -650
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -9.5
- DET 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- DET: Elo 82.3%, market 83.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -494
- SAC +494 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 107.0 – 119.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +35 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +267 Elo | DET 82.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 83.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 83.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 83.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 116.913th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 110.02nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.9 | Margin | +7.02nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 113.713th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 106.92nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 29th of 303–18 | Road vs home | 17–53rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301535 | Opponent Elo | 148525th of 30 |
| 26th of 301414 | Elo rating | 16064th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–28 | 23–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 16–26 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24 | 17–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.