Sacramento Kings at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints24
- Malik MonkAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints33
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–123
- Q48.9DeMar DeRozan makes running layup118–123
- Q414.2Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound116–123
- Q415.7Donovan Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2116–123
- Q415.7Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2116–123
- Q415.7Dennis Schroder personal foul116–122
- Q415.7Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound116–122
- Q418.2Russell Westbrook misses 25-foot three point jumper116–122
- Q425.6Russell Westbrook enters the game for Dylan Cardwell116–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:00Craig Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)SAC 106 – 111 CLE · CLE 73% → 85% +12CLE 73% → 85%+12 pts
- Q44:39DeMar DeRozan makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 112 – 113 CLE · SAC 22% → 33% +11SAC 22% → 33%+11 pts
- Q44:00Dylan Cardwell makes 9-foot floating jump shot (Malik Monk assists)SAC 114 – 113 CLE · SAC 33% → 47% +14SAC 33% → 47%+14 pts
- Q42:58Donovan Mitchell makes 7-foot pullup jump shotSAC 114 – 115 CLE · CLE 51% → 67% +16CLE 51% → 67%+16 pts
- Q42:27Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerSAC 114 – 118 CLE · CLE 67% → 87% +20CLE 67% → 87%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML SAC +425 / CLE -575
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7
- CLE 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 75.5%, market 81.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -447
- SAC +447 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 110.0 – 123.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −5 | SAC: Usual rotation · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | SAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +196 Elo | CLE 75.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 82.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 81.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 81.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 119.16th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 117.121st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.0 | Margin | +1.911th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 114.79th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.8 | Defense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.7 | Pace | 103.28th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–17 | Road vs home | 14–1118th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301536 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 25th of 301417 | Elo rating | 154811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–28 | 16–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 15–26 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24 | 21–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–1 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.