Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dyson DanielsPoints21
- Jalen JohnsonAssists9
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds13
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints31
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- PJ HallRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–110
- Q41.1CJ McCollum offensive rebound107–110
- Q41.1Brandon Miller blocks Onyeka Okongwu 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shot107–110
- Q419.4Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2107–110
- Q419.4CJ McCollum enters the game for Mouhamed Gueye107–109
- Q419.4Josh Green enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner107–109
- Q419.4Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball107–109
- Q419.4Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 2107–109
- Q419.4Nickeil Alexander-Walker personal foul107–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20.0Sion James makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)ATL 49 – 58 CHA · CHA 70% → 77% +7CHA 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q49:23Mouhamed Gueye makes 25-foot three pointer (CJ McCollum assists)ATL 85 – 93 CHA · ATL 9% → 16% +7ATL 9% → 16%+7 pts
- Q459.6Jalen Johnson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotATL 107 – 108 CHA · ATL 14% → 35% +22ATL 14% → 35%+22 pts
- Q419.4Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 2ATL 107 – 109 CHA · CHA 74% → 90% +16CHA 74% → 90%+16 pts
- Q419.4Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2ATL 107 – 110 CHA · CHA 90% → 97% +7CHA 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -2.5
- ML ATL +110 / CHA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -4.5
- CHA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.7 pts
- CHA: Elo 68.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHA -119
- ATL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.5 – 119.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | +6 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Moussa Diabate −21, Miles Bridges −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +131 Elo | CHA 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 115.815th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 113.911th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.914th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 114.910th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 113.117th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 100.222nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 11–1422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148926th of 30 |
| 18th of 301479 | Elo rating | 154613th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+6 Elo- Moussa Diabate suspended by league−21 Elo
- Miles Bridges suspended by league−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–29 | 32–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 29–26 | 21–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–5 CHA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Feb 7CHA 126 @ ATL 119Picked CHA 53%Hit
- Dec 18ATL 126 @ CHA 133Picked ATL 62%Miss
- Nov 23CHA 110 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 72%Hit
- Mar 18ATL 134 @ CHA 102Picked ATL 74%Hit
- Mar 12CHA 110 @ ATL 123Picked ATL 71%Hit
- Nov 30ATL 107 @ CHA 104Picked ATL 66%Hit
- Oct 25CHA 120 @ ATL 125Picked ATL 66%Hit
- Apr 10CHA 115 @ ATL 114Picked ATL 70%Miss