Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints26
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Moussa DiabateRebounds15
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints31
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists10
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–119
- Q46.2Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2126–119
- Q46.2Moussa Diabate enters the game for LaMelo Ball125–119
- Q46.2Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2125–119
- Q46.2Jalen Johnson personal take foul124–119
- Q411.1LaMelo Ball enters the game for Moussa Diabate124–119
- Q411.1Jalen Johnson out of bounds bad pass turnover124–119
- Q411.1(00:11.1) [Hornets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Hornets] retain their timeout124–119
- Q411.1Hornets Full timeout124–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:55Zaccharie Risacher makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)CHA 105 – 108 ATL · ATL 49% → 64% +15ATL 49% → 64%+15 pts
- Q42:48Jalen Johnson makes 8-foot turnaround jump shotCHA 117 – 115 ATL · ATL 19% → 33% +14ATL 19% → 33%+14 pts
- Q41:42Kon Knueppel makes 24-foot jump bank shot (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 120 – 115 ATL · CHA 72% → 92% +20CHA 72% → 92%+20 pts
- Q426.3Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2CHA 120 – 119 ATL · ATL 14% → 29% +15ATL 14% → 29%+15 pts
- Q423.3LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2CHA 121 – 119 ATL · CHA 72% → 88% +16CHA 72% → 88%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -1.5
- ML CHA -125 / ATL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -2
- CHA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- CHA: Elo 57.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHA -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 117.0 – 115.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | −12 | CHA: Missing Coby White −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +54 Elo | CHA 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 117.59th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 118.324th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.819th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 113.618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.3 | Pace | 103.74th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 10–1423rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 30 |
| 12th of 301546 | Elo rating | 149716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+41 Elo- Coby White strained left calf−16 Elo
Hawks
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–21 | 26–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–32 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 4–6 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Dec 18ATL 126 @ CHA 133Picked ATL 62%Miss
- Nov 23CHA 110 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 72%Hit
- Mar 18ATL 134 @ CHA 102Picked ATL 74%Hit
- Mar 12CHA 110 @ ATL 123Picked ATL 71%Hit
- Nov 30ATL 107 @ CHA 104Picked ATL 66%Hit
- Oct 25CHA 120 @ ATL 125Picked ATL 66%Hit
- Apr 10CHA 115 @ ATL 114Picked ATL 70%Miss
- Mar 23CHA 91 @ ATL 132Picked ATL 57%Hit