Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Isaiah CollierPoints25
- Isaiah CollierAssists11
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds17
Hawks- Jock LandalePoints26
- Jalen JohnsonAssists15
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–121
- Q40.1Jazz offensive team rebound119–121
- Q40.8Ace Bailey misses 24-foot fade away jump shot119–121
- Q41.3Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Corey Kispert119–121
- Q41.3Jazz Full timeout119–121
- Q43.4Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 18-foot two point shot119–121
- Q410.3Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three pointer (Cody Williams assists)119–119
- Q413.8Jazz Full timeout116–119
- Q413.8Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2116–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:39Ace Bailey makes 24-foot three pointerUTAH 109 – 107 ATL · UTAH 36% → 52% +16UTAH 36% → 52%+16 pts
- Q42:38Jalen Johnson makes 8-foot running pullup jump shotUTAH 116 – 114 ATL · ATL 23% → 38% +15ATL 23% → 38%+15 pts
- Q446.3Jock Landale makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)UTAH 116 – 117 ATL · ATL 23% → 69% +46ATL 23% → 69%+46 pts
- Q410.3Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three pointer (Cody Williams assists)UTAH 119 – 119 ATL · UTAH <1% → 49% +48UTAH <1% → 49%+48 pts
- Q43.4Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 18-foot two point shotUTAH 119 – 121 ATL · ATL 51% → >99% +49ATL 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -8.5
- ML UTAH +250 / ATL -310
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6.5
- ATL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 74.0%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -265
- UTAH +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.5 – 127.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1340 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | −14 | UTAH: Missing Keyonte George −6, Kevin Love −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −12 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +182 Elo | ATL 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 73.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 117.49th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.9 | Points allowed | 118.324th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.6 | Margin | −0.819th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.8 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 103.83rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–18 | Road vs home | 9–1424th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 15078th of 30 |
| 29th of 301340 | Elo rating | 149416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−5 Elo- Keyonte George left ankle−6 Elo
- Kevin Love illness−5 Elo
Hawks
−14 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu dental pain−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–24 | 26–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 23–22 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders | 31–20 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–4 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.