Utah Jazz at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints27
- Isaiah CollierAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds13
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints21
- RJ BarrettAssists4
- Scottie BarnesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–107
- Q41.5Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound100–107
- Q41.5Ace Bailey misses 26-foot three point jumper100–107
- Q48.1Scottie Barnes makes driving dunk (Immanuel Quickley assists)100–107
- Q411.8Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 2 of 2100–105
- Q411.8Sandro Mamukelashvili lane violation99–105
- Q411.8Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles99–105
- Q411.8Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 1 of 299–105
- Q411.8Scottie Barnes personal foul98–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:48Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot running jump shot (Scottie Barnes assists)UTAH 56 – 57 TOR · TOR 64% → 72% +8TOR 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q39:25Isaiah Collier makes 25-foot three pointer (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 62 – 59 TOR · UTAH 31% → 40% +9UTAH 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q32:58Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)UTAH 76 – 78 TOR · TOR 62% → 72% +10TOR 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q32:05Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 26-foot running jump shot (Scottie Barnes assists)UTAH 78 – 83 TOR · TOR 72% → 81% +9TOR 72% → 81%+9 pts
- Q48:06Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)UTAH 88 – 95 TOR · TOR 79% → 88% +9TOR 79% → 88%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -10.5
- ML UTAH +310 / TOR -395
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -8
- TOR 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 78.4%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -327
- UTAH +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.0 – 122.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1333 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | +23 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | UTAH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +224 Elo | TOR 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 78.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 78.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 113.724th of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.4 | Points allowed | 112.48th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.0 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 112.420th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.2 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.8 | Pace | 100.323rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–17 | Road vs home | 13–1117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301531 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 29th of 301333 | Elo rating | 147117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–24 | 25–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 22–22 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 30–19 | 20–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.