Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints35
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds8
Magic- Desmond BanePoints32
- Jalen SuggsAssists10
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–130
- Q48.0Anthony Black defensive rebound120–130
- Q411.8Immanuel Quickley misses 27-foot three point shot120–130
- Q415.4Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2120–130
- Q415.4Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2120–129
- Q415.4RJ Barrett personal take foul120–128
- Q426.8Immanuel Quickley makes driving layup120–128
- Q431.5Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2118–128
- Q431.5Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2118–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:39Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three pointerTOR 103 – 102 ORL · ORL 32% → 47% +15ORL 32% → 47%+15 pts
- Q46:02Desmond Bane makes 27-foot three pointerTOR 104 – 107 ORL · ORL 52% → 69% +17ORL 52% → 69%+17 pts
- Q45:47Brandon Ingram makes 27-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 107 – 107 ORL · TOR 31% → 48% +17TOR 31% → 48%+17 pts
- Q45:01Desmond Bane makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotTOR 107 – 112 ORL · ORL 65% → 80% +16ORL 65% → 80%+16 pts
- Q44:12Anthony Black makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)TOR 109 – 115 ORL · ORL 72% → 87% +15ORL 72% → 87%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML TOR +120 / ORL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- ORL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 48.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -129
- TOR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 109.5 – 112.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | 0 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +11 Elo | TOR 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 115.419th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 115.614th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.715th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3016–9 | Road vs home | 13–811th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 17th of 301482 | Elo rating | 145323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–24 | 18–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 12–21 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–30 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–4 ORL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Dec 29ORL 106 @ TOR 107Picked ORL 53%Miss
- Mar 4TOR 114 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 67%Miss
- Mar 2TOR 104 @ ORL 102Picked ORL 70%Miss
- Jan 21ORL 93 @ TOR 109Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Jan 3ORL 106 @ TOR 97Picked ORL 53%Hit
- Mar 17TOR 96 @ ORL 111Picked ORL 79%Hit
- Mar 15ORL 113 @ TOR 103Picked ORL 71%Hit
- Nov 21TOR 107 @ ORL 126Picked ORL 56%Hit