Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints37
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints45
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–114
- Q419.0shot clock turnover98–114
- Q440.3Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound98–114
- Q444.2Anthony Black misses 33-foot three point pullup jump shot98–114
- Q448.7Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 298–114
- Q448.7Nae'Qwan Tomlin enters the game for Dean Wade98–113
- Q448.7Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 298–113
- Q448.7Jalen Suggs personal take foul98–112
- Q41:00Paolo Banchero makes driving dunk98–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:43Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Proctor assists)ORL 42 – 36 CLE · CLE 39% → 47% +8CLE 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q27:16Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jaylon Tyson assists)ORL 42 – 39 CLE · CLE 47% → 54% +8CLE 47% → 54%+8 pts
- Q25:41Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 47 – 45 CLE · ORL 36% → 44% +8ORL 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q23:14Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three pointerORL 52 – 49 CLE · ORL 39% → 47% +8ORL 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q227.9Jaylon Tyson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)ORL 56 – 59 CLE · CLE 60% → 69% +8CLE 60% → 69%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML ORL +170 / CLE -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 69.9%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -181
- ORL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 108.5 – 113.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | −2 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +146 Elo | CLE 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 67.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 119.15th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 115.09th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.7 | Pace | 103.08th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 15–1116th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301447 | Elo rating | 15647th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–27 | 17–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–21 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22 | 22–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 6–9 CLE in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.
- Jan 24CLE 119 @ ORL 105Picked ORL 53%Miss
- Mar 16ORL 108 @ CLE 103Picked CLE 80%Miss
- Feb 25CLE 122 @ ORL 82Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Nov 1ORL 109 @ CLE 120Picked CLE 72%Hit
- May 5ORL 94 @ CLE 106PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- May 3CLE 96 @ ORL 103PlayoffsPicked ORL 66%Hit
- Apr 30ORL 103 @ CLE 104PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- Apr 27CLE 89 @ ORL 112PlayoffsPicked ORL 56%Hit