Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints36
- Donovan MitchellAssists9
- Lonzo BallRebounds8
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints27
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Moritz WagnerRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–105
- Q44.9shot clock turnover119–105
- Q433.7Jarrett Allen defensive rebound119–105
- Q433.7Anthony Black misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot119–105
- Q438.3Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 2 of 2119–105
- Q438.3Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2118–105
- Q438.3Paolo Banchero personal foul117–105
- Q446.2Paolo Banchero makes driving layup117–105
- Q452.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2117–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:58Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)CLE 31 – 31 ORL · ORL 45% → 52% +8ORL 45% → 52%+8 pts
- Q27:48Jaylon Tyson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)CLE 34 – 31 ORL · CLE 48% → 56% +8CLE 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q310:45Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot running jump shot (Jalen Suggs assists)CLE 57 – 53 ORL · ORL 31% → 40% +8ORL 31% → 40%+8 pts
- Q36:25Lonzo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)CLE 66 – 55 ORL · CLE 74% → 81% +8CLE 74% → 81%+8 pts
- Q36:06Anthony Black makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 66 – 58 ORL · ORL 19% → 26% +8ORL 19% → 26%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML CLE +102 / ORL -122
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ORL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- ORL: Elo 49.2%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- ORL -111
- CLE +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 112.0 – 113.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | 0 | +9 | CLE: Usual rotation · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +6 Elo | CLE 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 115.719th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 115.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 112.818th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 112.514th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.1 | Pace | 101.716th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 13–710th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 10th of 301551 | Elo rating | 146023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–30 | 17–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–25 | 12–20 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–6 ORL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
- Mar 16ORL 108 @ CLE 103Picked CLE 80%Miss
- Feb 25CLE 122 @ ORL 82Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Nov 1ORL 109 @ CLE 120Picked CLE 72%Hit
- May 5ORL 94 @ CLE 106PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- May 3CLE 96 @ ORL 103PlayoffsPicked ORL 66%Hit
- Apr 30ORL 103 @ CLE 104PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- Apr 27CLE 89 @ ORL 112PlayoffsPicked ORL 56%Hit
- Apr 25CLE 83 @ ORL 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 50%Miss