New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints30
- Tyler KolekAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds22
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints27
- Scottie BarnesAssists5
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–92
- Q47.6shot clock turnover119–92
- Q429.5Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound119–92
- Q434.2Ja'Kobe Walter misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot119–92
- Q448.1Tyler Kolek makes 12-foot step back jumpshot119–92
- Q41:07Jonathan Mogbo bad pass
turnover (Landry Shamet steals)117–92
- Q41:11Ariel Hukporti lost ball turnover (Jonathan Mogbo steals)117–92
- Q41:12Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound117–92
- Q41:15Jonathan Mogbo misses driving floating jump shot117–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q234.2OG Anunoby makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 47 – 51 TOR · NY 29% → 37% +8NY 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q310:52Mikal Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 50 – 53 TOR · NY 31% → 39% +8NY 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q37:33Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot running jump shot (Josh Hart assists)NY 60 – 66 TOR · NY 22% → 30% +8NY 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q35:05Landry Shamet makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 67 – 68 TOR · NY 35% → 45% +10NY 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q32:36Mikal Bridges makes two point shot (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 73 – 70 TOR · NY 52% → 60% +7NY 52% → 60%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -1.5
- ML NY +102 / TOR -122
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1.5
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.8%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- NY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 109.5 – 111.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −3 | +25 | NY: Usual rotation · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +48 Elo | TOR 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 52.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 111.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +2.112th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 110.77th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.0 | Pace | 100.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 13–1017th of 30 |
| 28th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 30 |
| 11th of 301550 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–24 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–20 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–23 | 19–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 10–0 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.