Orlando Magic at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints31
- Tyus JonesAssists9
- Paolo BancheroRebounds12
Heat- Simone FontecchioPoints23
- Bam AdebayoAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–124
- Q42.9Paolo Banchero defensive rebound133–124
- Q42.9Anthony Black blocks Norman Powell 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shot133–124
- Q49.3Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2133–124
- Q49.3Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Jalen Suggs132–124
- Q49.3Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2132–124
- Q49.3Andrew Wiggins personal take foul131–124
- Q412.4Jalen Suggs enters the game for Jonathan Isaac131–124
- Q413.4Norman Powell makes 2-foot two point shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)131–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:37Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 77 – 75 MIA · ORL 42% → 52% +10ORL 42% → 52%+10 pts
- Q34:41Anthony Black makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)ORL 82 – 79 MIA · ORL 46% → 56% +11ORL 46% → 56%+11 pts
- Q34:00Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)ORL 85 – 81 MIA · ORL 49% → 60% +11ORL 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q32:53Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 90 – 81 MIA · ORL 68% → 77% +9ORL 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q48:27Bam Adebayo makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dru Smith assists)ORL 107 – 104 MIA · MIA 25% → 38% +13MIA 25% → 38%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -3.5
- ML ORL +124 / MIA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 62.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -134
- ORL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 114.5 – 118.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | +8 | ORL: Usual rotation · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MIA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +87 Elo | MIA 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 118.023rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.713th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 112.620th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 111.09th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.6 | Pace | 106.01st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 15–78th of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15185th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301440 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+8 Elo- Tyler Herro rib injury−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–28 | 27–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–21 | 11–9 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–23 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 6–5 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Dec 9MIA 108 @ ORL 117Picked ORL 52%Hit
- Dec 5MIA 105 @ ORL 106Picked ORL 66%Hit
- Oct 22MIA 121 @ ORL 125Picked ORL 74%Hit
- Jan 27ORL 119 @ MIA 125Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Dec 26MIA 89 @ ORL 88Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Dec 21MIA 114 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 54%Hit
- Oct 23ORL 116 @ MIA 97Picked MIA 55%Miss
- Feb 6ORL 95 @ MIA 121Picked ORL 53%Miss