Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints22
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists6
- Norman PowellRebounds10
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints26
- Royce O'NealeAssists5
- Mark WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–102
- Q45.9shot clock turnover111–102
- Q428.8Ryan Dunn makes tip shot111–102
- Q429.9Ryan Dunn offensive rebound111–100
- Q429.9Rasheer Fleming misses two point shot111–100
- Q429.9Rasheer Fleming offensive rebound111–100
- Q432.2Ryan Dunn misses running dunk111–100
- Q435.4Norman Powell lost ball turnover (Nigel Hayes-Davis steals)111–100
- Q454.9Ryan Dunn makes tip shot111–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:36Norman Powell makes 27-foot running jump shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)MIA 63 – 56 PHX · MIA 54% → 63% +9MIA 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q37:32Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)MIA 67 – 62 PHX · PHX 32% → 41% +9PHX 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q32:32Nikola Jovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)MIA 78 – 71 PHX · MIA 59% → 69% +11MIA 59% → 69%+11 pts
- Q30.2Isaiah Livers makes 34-foot three point jumper (Jordan Goodwin assists)MIA 82 – 77 PHX · PHX 25% → 35% +11PHX 25% → 35%+11 pts
- Q411:03Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 87 – 77 PHX · MIA 73% → 83% +10MIA 73% → 83%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -4.5
- ML MIA +150 / PHX -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4.5
- PHX 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- PHX: Elo 67.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHX -161
- MIA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 110.5 – 115.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | −32 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +125 Elo | PHX 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.9 | Points scored | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 111.85th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +2.610th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 110.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.1 | Pace | 100.620th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–15 | Road vs home | 14–55th of 30 |
| 5th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 30 |
| 16th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15767th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–20 | 31–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–9 | 16–4 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–22 | 19–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–3 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.