Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints31
- Jordan GoodwinAssists5
- Oso IghodaroRebounds7
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints25
- Jalen JohnsonAssists9
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–110
- Q40.4Nickeil Alexander-Walker lost ball turnover (Collin Gillespie steals)103–110
- Q414.5Grayson Allen bad pass
turnover (Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals)103–110
- Q424.8Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2103–110
- Q424.8Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2103–109
- Q424.8Collin Gillespie personal take foul103–108
- Q431.4Jalen Johnson defensive rebound103–108
- Q434.6Grayson Allen misses 25-foot three point jumper103–108
- Q436.6Royce O'Neale enters the game for Mark Williams103–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:01Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)PHX 94 – 94 ATL · ATL 33% → 47% +14ATL 33% → 47%+14 pts
- Q48:03Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Goodwin assists)PHX 99 – 96 ATL · PHX 53% → 68% +15PHX 53% → 68%+15 pts
- Q44:04Collin Gillespie makes two point shot (Dillon Brooks assists)PHX 103 – 102 ATL · PHX 45% → 59% +14PHX 45% → 59%+14 pts
- Q43:46CJ McCollum makes 16-foot pullup jump shotPHX 103 – 104 ATL · ATL 41% → 55% +15ATL 41% → 55%+15 pts
- Q42:19Jalen Johnson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotPHX 103 – 107 ATL · ATL 67% → 82% +15ATL 67% → 82%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -3.5
- ML PHX -148 / ATL +124
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6
- PHX 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +15.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 72.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -134
- ATL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 118.5 – 115.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −20 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +167 Elo | PHX 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.7 | Points scored | 117.610th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 119.125th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.9 | Margin | −1.520th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 112.620th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.018th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.7 | Pace | 103.94th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 7–1325th of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 5th of 301590 | Elo rating | 145623rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–13 | 22–24 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–3 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–3 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.