Miami Heat at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints26
- Andrew WigginsAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds15
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints23
- Jusuf NurkicAssists12
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game147–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter147–116
- Q40.0(00:00) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)147–116
- Q40.6Kyle Filipowski makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)147–116
- Q42.0Jazz offensive team rebound147–113
- Q43.0Myron Gardner blocks Isaiah Collier 's 4-foot driving floating jump shot147–113
- Q49.1Keshad Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2147–113
- Q49.1Keshad Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2146–113
- Q49.1Kyle Filipowski shooting foul145–113
- Q432.9Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 2145–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:59Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)MIA 7 – 11 UTAH · MIA 54% → 61% +6MIA 54% → 61%+6 pts
- Q18:11Bam Adebayo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)MIA 12 – 13 UTAH · MIA 60% → 66% +6MIA 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q136.1Brice Sensabaugh makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)MIA 35 – 34 UTAH · UTAH 25% → 31% +6UTAH 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q211:36Nikola Jovic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Myron Gardner assists)MIA 38 – 34 UTAH · MIA 69% → 75% +6MIA 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q29:44Simone Fontecchio makes 27-foot running jump shot (Dru Smith assists)MIA 41 – 34 UTAH · MIA 75% → 80% +6MIA 75% → 80%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -6.5
- ML MIA -258 / UTAH +210
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3.5
- MIA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 64.0%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -223
- UTAH +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 125.5 – 119.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −48 | MIA: Usual rotation · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +100 Elo | MIA 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 67.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 119.16th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 127.430th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −8.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 120.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.0 | Pace | 103.92nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–15 | Road vs home | 10–1321st of 30 |
| 4th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 15361st of 30 |
| 19th of 301475 | Elo rating | 137327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–20 | 25–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–2 UTAH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.