Brooklyn Nets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Egor DeminPoints25
- Nolan TraoreAssists6
- Egor DeminRebounds10
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints26
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–99
- Q42.3Nolan Traore personal foul106–99
- Q46.1Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound106–99
- Q49.9Danny Wolf misses 26-foot three point jumper106–99
- Q432.5Brice Sensabaugh makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot106–99
- Q443.1Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound106–96
- Q443.1Egor Demin misses free throw 2 of 2106–96
- Q443.1Egor Demin makes free throw 1 of 2106–96
- Q443.1Kyle Filipowski loose ball foul105–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:16Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)BKN 80 – 78 UTAH · UTAH 36% → 47% +12UTAH 36% → 47%+12 pts
- Q342.0Ace Bailey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)BKN 81 – 81 UTAH · UTAH 43% → 55% +12UTAH 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q49:50Jalen Wilson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 91 – 83 UTAH · BKN 68% → 79% +11BKN 68% → 79%+11 pts
- Q46:07Egor Demin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 94 – 89 UTAH · BKN 58% → 74% +16BKN 58% → 74%+16 pts
- Q45:38Danny Wolf makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 97 – 89 UTAH · BKN 75% → 87% +12BKN 75% → 87%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -3.5
- ML BKN +136 / UTAH -162
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1.5
- UTAH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- UTAH: Elo 56.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -146
- BKN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 111.5 – 115.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1330 | 1345 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −25 | −73 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Lauri Markkanen −55, Walker Kessler −26 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +44 Elo | UTAH 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.7 | Points scored | 118.86th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 127.830th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.0 | Margin | −9.028th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 112.718th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 121.330th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–17 | Road vs home | 10–1625th of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15342nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301330 | Elo rating | 134528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−73 Elo- Lauri Markkanen rest−55 Elo
- Walker Kessler injury/illness−26 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–23 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 21–23 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders | 20–26 | 30–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–4 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.