Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points36
- Nic ClaxtonAssists8
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds7
Suns- Mark WilliamsPoints27
- Grayson AllenAssists6
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–106
- Q45.2Grayson Allen defensive rebound102–106
- Q49.6Michael Porter Jr. misses 20-foot jumper102–106
- Q411.8Egor Demin enters the game for Danny Wolf102–106
- Q411.8Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Jamaree Bouyea102–106
- Q411.8Nets Full timeout102–106
- Q412.8Grayson Allen makes driving layup102–106
- Q434.1shot clock turnover102–104
- Q434.1Nets offensive team rebound102–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:16Egor Demin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)BKN 97 – 93 PHX · BKN 50% → 70% +20BKN 50% → 70%+20 pts
- Q43:33Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 100 – 96 PHX · BKN 51% → 73% +22BKN 51% → 73%+22 pts
- Q42:41Mark Williams makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Grayson Allen assists)BKN 100 – 98 PHX · PHX 23% → 38% +15PHX 23% → 38%+15 pts
- Q41:53Mark Williams makes 11-foot two point shotBKN 100 – 100 PHX · PHX 34% → 55% +21PHX 34% → 55%+21 pts
- Q41:39Grayson Allen makes 5-foot two point shotBKN 102 – 102 PHX · PHX 33% → 54% +22PHX 33% → 54%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -7.5
- ML BKN +245 / PHX -305
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -8
- PHX 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- PHX: Elo 77.8%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -260
- BKN +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 101.5 – 109.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1335 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −56 | BKN: Usual rotation · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +218 Elo | PHX 77.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 73.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.9 | Points scored | 114.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 111.85th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.2 | Margin | +2.411th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 113.115th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 110.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 100.620th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 306–15 | Road vs home | 14–67th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 29th of 301335 | Elo rating | 15619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–23 | 31–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 16–5 |
| Underdog | 19–23 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25 | 19–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–3 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.