Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints32
- Jaylen BrownAssists12
- Jaylen BrownRebounds10
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points30
- Michael Porter Jr.Assists4
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game130–126
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime130–126
- 2OT3.1Sam Hauser defensive rebound130–126
- 2OT8.5Michael Porter Jr. misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot130–126
- 2OT16.7Nic Claxton defensive rebound130–126
- 2OT20.4Sam Hauser misses 25-foot three point jumper130–126
- 2OT36.8Jaylen Brown defensive rebound130–126
- 2OT40.6Amari Williams blocks Nolan Traore 's 2-foot driving layup130–126
- 2OT44.2Nets Full timeout130–126
- 2OT44.2Payton Pritchard makes driving layup (Jaylen Brown assists)130–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41.9Nic Claxton makes tip in dunkBOS 104 – 104 BKN · BKN <1% → 49% +49BKN <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT3:20Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Garza assists)BOS 107 – 106 BKN · BOS 41% → 65% +23BOS 41% → 65%+23 pts
- OT2:34Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 110 – 108 BKN · BOS 47% → 73% +26BOS 47% → 73%+26 pts
- OT41.6Noah Clowney makes 25-foot running jump shot (Nolan Traore assists)BOS 112 – 113 BKN · BKN 17% → 64% +47BKN 17% → 64%+47 pts
- OT0.4Hugo Gonzalez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)BOS 118 – 118 BKN · BOS 0% → 50% +50BOS 0% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML BOS -355 / BKN +280
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9
- BOS 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 80.6%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -296
- BKN +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.0 – 103.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1649 | 1345 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −22 | −2 | BOS: Missing Derrick White −23 · BKN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +248 Elo | BOS 80.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 76.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 77.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 107.930th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 114.511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.9 | Margin | −6.525th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.1 | Offense rating | 109.426th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 116.026th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 5th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 6–1629th of 30 |
| 29th of 301477 | Opponent Elo | 149419th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301649 | Elo rating | 134528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−22 Elo- Derrick White rest−23 Elo
Nets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–18 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 18–22 |
| Overs–unders | 18–25 | 17–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–1 BKN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Nov 21BKN 113 @ BOS 105Picked BOS 84%Miss
- Nov 18BOS 113 @ BKN 99Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Mar 18BKN 96 @ BOS 104Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Mar 15BOS 115 @ BKN 113Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Nov 13BOS 139 @ BKN 114Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Nov 8BKN 104 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Feb 14BKN 86 @ BOS 136Picked BOS 78%Hit
- Feb 13BOS 118 @ BKN 110Picked BOS 65%Hit