Brooklyn Nets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Danny WolfPoints14
- Egor DeminAssists5
- Danny WolfRebounds7
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints28
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–126
- Q49.4Danny Wolf makes free throw 2 of 289–126
- Q49.4Danny Wolf makes free throw 1 of 288–126
- Q49.4Patrick Baldwin Jr. personal foul87–126
- Q420.7Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 4-foot two point shot87–126
- Q432.6E.J. Liddell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Drake Powell assists)87–124
- Q437.6Kobe Brown makes 2-foot running dunk84–124
- Q443.1Drake Powell bad pass
turnover (Kobe Brown steals)84–122
- Q450.4Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)84–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:39Michael Porter Jr. makes 1-foot reverse layup (Egor Demin assists)BKN 2 – 0 LAC · BKN 21% → 24% +3BKN 21% → 24%+3 pts
- Q111:19Ivica Zubac makes 4-foot two point shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)BKN 2 – 2 LAC · LAC 76% → 79% +3LAC 76% → 79%+3 pts
- Q110:01Drake Powell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)BKN 5 – 4 LAC · BKN 18% → 23% +5BKN 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q18:12Terance Mann makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 8 – 12 LAC · BKN 12% → 16% +4BKN 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q14:51James Harden makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 10 – 19 LAC · LAC 86% → 90% +3LAC 86% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -10.5
- ML BKN +360 / LAC -470
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -8.5
- LAC 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- LAC: Elo 79.8%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -379
- BKN +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 100.5 – 111.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1343 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +7 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +238 Elo | LAC 79.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 79.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 79.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 112.325th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 113.59th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.5 | Margin | −1.219th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 114.012th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 97.830th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 306–14 | Road vs home | 12–916th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 29th of 301343 | Elo rating | 155010th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–22 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 19–22 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 18–25 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–4 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.