Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points38
- Nic ClaxtonAssists7
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds10
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints27
- Jamal MurrayAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–107
- Q40.1Nets offensive team rebound103–107
- Q40.3Terance Mann misses tip shot103–107
- Q40.9Terance Mann offensive rebound103–107
- Q42.1Michael Porter Jr. misses 24-foot turnaround jump shot103–107
- Q42.6Danny Wolf enters the game for Drake Powell103–107
- Q42.6Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Day'Ron Sharpe103–107
- Q42.6Spencer Jones enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.103–107
- Q42.6Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas103–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:40Nolan Traore makes driving layup (Terance Mann assists)BKN 92 – 90 DEN · BKN 44% → 57% +13BKN 44% → 57%+13 pts
- Q44:22Peyton Watson makes driving layupBKN 92 – 92 DEN · DEN 42% → 56% +14DEN 42% → 56%+14 pts
- Q43:15Terance Mann makes 1-foot dunk (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 94 – 92 DEN · BKN 45% → 61% +16BKN 45% → 61%+16 pts
- Q42:55Jonas Valanciunas makes layup (Jamal Murray assists)BKN 94 – 94 DEN · DEN 38% → 55% +17DEN 38% → 55%+17 pts
- Q42:26Jamal Murray makes 6-foot turnaround jump shotBKN 94 – 97 DEN · DEN 63% → 79% +16DEN 63% → 79%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML BKN +200 / DEN -245
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7.5
- DEN 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 77.3%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -213
- BKN +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 101.5 – 108.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1332 | 1610 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −99 | BKN: Usual rotation · DEN: Missing Aaron Gordon −30 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +213 Elo | DEN 77.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 71.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 120.42nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 116.017th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.1 | Margin | +4.38th of 30 |
| 27th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 119.71st of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 99.726th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 24th of 306–16 | Road vs home | 12–916th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148029th of 30 |
| 29th of 301332 | Elo rating | 16104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−99 Elo- Aaron Gordon strained right hamstring−30 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–23 | 28–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 17–14 |
| Underdog | 20–23 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–26 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–4 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.