Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Tobias HarrisRebounds8
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints24
- Jamal MurrayAssists10
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–107
- Q40.7Nuggets offensive team rebound109–107
- Q40.7Jamal Murray misses free throw 3 of 3109–107
- Q40.7Jalen Duren enters the game for Javonte Green109–107
- Q40.7Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.109–107
- Q40.7Nuggets offensive team rebound109–107
- Q40.7Jamal Murray misses free throw 2 of 3109–107
- Q40.7Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 3109–107
- Q40.7Javonte Green shooting foul109–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:03Cade Cunningham makes 7-foot fade away jump shotDET 101 – 97 DEN · DET 73% → 87% +14DET 73% → 87%+14 pts
- Q456.9Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DET 103 – 102 DEN · DEN 6% → 33% +27DEN 6% → 33%+27 pts
- Q454.3Duncan Robinson makes driving dunk (Javonte Green assists)DET 105 – 102 DEN · DET 67% → 89% +21DET 67% → 89%+21 pts
- Q440.8Jonas Valanciunas makes layup (Jamal Murray assists)DET 105 – 104 DEN · DEN 8% → 31% +22DEN 8% → 31%+22 pts
- Q418.1Tobias Harris makes 16-foot fade away jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 107 – 104 DEN · DET 76% → 98% +22DET 76% → 98%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML DET -278 / DEN +225
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- DET: Elo 64.9%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -239
- DEN +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.0 – 104.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1613 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | −108 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Missing Aaron Gordon −30 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +107 Elo | DET 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 67.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 120.71st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 116.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.3 | Margin | +4.58th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 119.91st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.0 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.5 | Pace | 99.826th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3014–6 | Road vs home | 12–812th of 30 |
| 27th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 147729th of 30 |
| 4th of 301612 | Elo rating | 16133rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−108 Elo- Aaron Gordon right hamstring strain−30 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–20 | 27–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–19 | 17–14 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–26 | 27–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–4 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.