LA Clippers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints21
- James HardenAssists10
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds7
Jazz- Ace BaileyPoints20
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Kevin LoveRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–103
- Q414.9Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 2115–103
- Q414.9Isaiah Collier makes free throw 1 of 2115–102
- Q414.9Kobe Sanders shooting foul115–101
- Q423.1Kobe Sanders makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)115–101
- Q446.6Brice Sensabaugh makes two point shot (Kyle Filipowski assists)112–101
- Q449.3Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound112–99
- Q452.3Cam Christie misses two point shot112–99
- Q41:04Kobe Brown offensive rebound112–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:02Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kobe Sanders assists)LAC 22 – 29 UTAH · LAC 48% → 55% +7LAC 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q23:59Lauri Markkanen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)LAC 39 – 45 UTAH · UTAH 39% → 47% +8UTAH 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q22:03James Harden makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 46 – 49 UTAH · LAC 52% → 60% +8LAC 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q21:38James Harden makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)LAC 49 – 51 UTAH · LAC 55% → 63% +8LAC 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q20.4Ace Bailey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)LAC 53 – 54 UTAH · UTAH 27% → 35% +8UTAH 27% → 35%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -8.5
- ML LAC -340 / UTAH +270
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6.5
- LAC 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- LAC: Elo 74.4%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -286
- UTAH +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 121.5 – 113.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1358 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −22 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Keyonte George −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +186 Elo | LAC 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 72.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 127.830th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −8.828th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 121.130th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.9 | Pace | 104.12nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–15 | Road vs home | 10–1422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15332nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301559 | Elo rating | 135827th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−22 Elo- Keyonte George rest−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–23 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22 | 29–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 7–3 UTAH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Jan 1UTAH 101 @ LAC 118Picked LAC 86%Hit
- Oct 22LAC 108 @ UTAH 129Picked LAC 76%Miss
- Feb 13LAC 120 @ UTAH 116Picked LAC 77%Hit
- Feb 8UTAH 110 @ LAC 130Picked LAC 90%Hit
- Dec 16UTAH 107 @ LAC 144Picked LAC 72%Hit
- Nov 17UTAH 105 @ LAC 116Picked LAC 78%Hit
- Apr 12UTAH 110 @ LAC 109Picked LAC 82%Miss
- Apr 5UTAH 102 @ LAC 131Picked LAC 71%Hit