Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints27
- Al HorfordAssists8
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds8
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints22
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Keyonte GeorgeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–124
- Q423.4Kyle Filipowski makes running layup (Brice Sensabaugh assists)140–124
- Q426.7Trayce Jackson-Davis bad pass
turnover (Walter Clayton Jr. steals)140–122
- Q430.1Pat Spencer offensive rebound140–122
- Q434.2Will Richard misses 24-foot three point jumper140–122
- Q452.1Isaiah Collier makes 2-foot running dunk140–122
- Q453.7Ace Bailey defensive rebound140–120
- Q459.2Buddy Hield misses 23-foot running jump shot140–120
- Q41:03Walter Clayton Jr. bad pass
turnover (Will Richard steals)140–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:42Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 3 – 2 UTAH · GS 68% → 73% +5GS 68% → 73%+5 pts
- Q18:47Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)GS 6 – 8 UTAH · GS 61% → 67% +6GS 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q18:08Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 9 – 10 UTAH · GS 63% → 69% +6GS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q411:22Will Richard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)GS 104 – 93 UTAH · GS 87% → 93% +6GS 87% → 93%+6 pts
- Q49:43Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 111 – 100 UTAH · GS 88% → 94% +6GS 88% → 94%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -8.5
- ML GS -298 / UTAH +240
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5.5
- GS 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- GS: Elo 70.2%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- GS -255
- UTAH +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 125.5 – 117.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1353 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −36 | +33 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Kevin Love −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +149 Elo | GS 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 118.76th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 127.530th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −8.928th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 121.130th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.9 | Pace | 103.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 20th of 309–15 | Road vs home | 10–1524th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15332nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301568 | Elo rating | 135328th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+33 Elo- Kevin Love rest−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–25 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders | 28–20 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 8–1 UTAH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Jan 3UTAH 114 @ GS 123Picked GS 82%Hit
- Nov 24UTAH 117 @ GS 134Picked GS 85%Hit
- Feb 5GS 128 @ UTAH 131Picked GS 68%Miss
- Jan 28UTAH 103 @ GS 114Picked GS 79%Hit
- Oct 25GS 127 @ UTAH 86Picked GS 69%Hit
- Apr 14UTAH 116 @ GS 123Picked GS 80%Hit
- Apr 7UTAH 110 @ GS 118Picked GS 80%Hit
- Feb 15GS 140 @ UTAH 137Picked UTAH 54%Miss