Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints27
- Isaiah CollierAssists22
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds16
Pacers- Jarace WalkerPoints24
- Kam JonesAssists8
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–122
- Q412.6Jarace Walker bad pass
turnover (Isaiah Collier steals)131–122
- Q418.6Isaiah Collier bad pass
turnover (Quenton Jackson steals)131–122
- Q441.1Jarace Walker makes driving dunk131–122
- Q443.2Ace Bailey bad pass
turnover (Jarace Walker steals)131–120
- Q447.5Ben Sheppard bad pass
turnover (Ace Bailey steals)131–120
- Q454.3Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 2 of 2131–120
- Q454.3Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 1 of 2130–120
- Q454.3Jarace Walker personal foul129–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:06Svi Mykhailiuk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 99 – 93 IND · UTAH 66% → 77% +11UTAH 66% → 77%+11 pts
- Q410:13Ethan Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Johnny Furphy assists)UTAH 99 – 96 IND · IND 23% → 34% +11IND 23% → 34%+11 pts
- Q49:43Ethan Thompson makes 26-foot three pointer (Johnny Furphy assists)UTAH 101 – 100 IND · IND 30% → 43% +13IND 30% → 43%+13 pts
- Q45:53Taelon Peter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)UTAH 113 – 111 IND · IND 21% → 36% +15IND 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q45:42Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three pointer (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 116 – 111 IND · UTAH 64% → 79% +15UTAH 64% → 79%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -2.5
- ML UTAH -142 / IND +120
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- UTAH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- UTAH: Elo 49.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -129
- IND +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 117.5 – 115.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1330 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −14 | −102 | UTAH: Missing Walker Kessler −21, Keyonte George −14, Kevin Love −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Missing Pascal Siakam −61, T.J. McConnell −28, Andrew Nembhard −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +2 Elo | IND 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 110.728th of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.0 | Points allowed | 118.425th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.0 | Margin | −7.727th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 107.530th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.8 | Defense rating | 114.921st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.8 | Pace | 102.611th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–18 | Road vs home | 10–1725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301529 | Opponent Elo | 15146th of 30 |
| 29th of 301330 | Elo rating | 142424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−14 Elo- Walker Kessler left shoulder−21 Elo
- Keyonte George sprained left ankle−14 Elo
- Kevin Love illness−10 Elo
Pacers
−102 Elo- Pascal Siakam rest−61 Elo
- T.J. McConnell left knee−28 Elo
- Andrew Nembhard lower back injury−9 Elo
- Aaron Nesmith left hand−8 Elo
- Bennedict Mathurin rest−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–24 | 26–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 23–22 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders | 30–20 | 20–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–3 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.