Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints39
- Amen ThompsonAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds16
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints27
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Aaron NesmithRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–114
- Q42.9Amen Thompson defensive rebound118–114
- Q42.9Jay Huff misses 30-foot three point jumper118–114
- Q43.8Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Alperen Sengun118–114
- Q43.8Andrew Nembhard enters the game for Isaiah Jackson118–114
- Q43.8Pacers Full timeout118–114
- Q43.8Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2118–114
- Q43.8Jay Huff enters the game for Andrew Nembhard117–114
- Q43.8Rockets offensive team rebound117–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:27Aaron Holiday makes 28-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 90 – 89 IND · HOU 51% → 63% +13HOU 51% → 63%+13 pts
- Q411:13Micah Potter makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)HOU 90 – 92 IND · IND 37% → 49% +13IND 37% → 49%+13 pts
- Q48:37Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)HOU 97 – 99 IND · IND 37% → 52% +14IND 37% → 52%+14 pts
- Q42:11Pascal Siakam makes tip shotHOU 112 – 110 IND · IND 14% → 28% +14IND 14% → 28%+14 pts
- Q42:01Amen Thompson makes driving layupHOU 114 – 110 IND · HOU 73% → 87% +14HOU 73% → 87%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML HOU -250 / IND +205
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.4%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -218
- IND +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 112.5 – 106.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | −33 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +88 Elo | HOU 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 110.728th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 118.425th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.0 | Margin | −7.827th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 107.330th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 114.821st of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 102.611th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 10–1624th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15126th of 30 |
| 8th of 301582 | Elo rating | 142924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–25 | 25–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 20–27 | 19–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–3 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.