Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints33
- Jalen JohnsonAssists10
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints26
- Andrew NembhardAssists10
- Jarace WalkerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–129
- Q40.0Hawks offensive team rebound124–129
- Q40.0CJ McCollum misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot124–129
- Q43.8Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2124–129
- Q43.8CJ McCollum enters the game for Dyson Daniels124–128
- Q43.8Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2124–128
- Q43.8Mouhamed Gueye shooting foul124–127
- Q45.7Corey Kispert enters the game for Luke Kennard124–127
- Q45.7Dyson Daniels enters the game for CJ McCollum124–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:51Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)ATL 109 – 112 IND · ATL 21% → 35% +14ATL 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q45:53Ben Sheppard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)ATL 111 – 115 IND · IND 55% → 72% +17IND 55% → 72%+17 pts
- Q44:09Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)ATL 114 – 118 IND · IND 56% → 75% +19IND 56% → 75%+19 pts
- Q43:31Jay Huff makes two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)ATL 117 – 120 IND · IND 57% → 71% +14IND 57% → 71%+14 pts
- Q438.3CJ McCollum makes 9-foot fade away jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 123 – 125 IND · ATL 4% → 19% +15ATL 4% → 19%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML ATL -122 / IND +102
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.6%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -111
- IND +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 118.0 – 116.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −36 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +39 Elo | ATL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 110.328th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 118.325th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −8.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 107.130th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 114.921st of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.6 | Pace | 102.511th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 9–1626th of 30 |
| 7th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15126th of 30 |
| 16th of 301487 | Elo rating | 142124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–25 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 18–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–5 IND in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Jan 26IND 116 @ ATL 132Picked ATL 66%Hit
- Oct 31ATL 128 @ IND 108Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Mar 8IND 118 @ ATL 120Picked IND 51%Miss
- Mar 6IND 118 @ ATL 124Picked ATL 56%Hit
- Feb 1ATL 127 @ IND 132Picked IND 77%Hit
- Apr 14ATL 115 @ IND 157Picked IND 70%Hit
- Jan 12IND 126 @ ATL 108Picked ATL 51%Miss
- Jan 5ATL 116 @ IND 150Picked IND 63%Hit