Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints25
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Jalen SmithRebounds11
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints20
- Andrew NembhardAssists9
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–113
- Q41.0Josh Giddey bad pass
turnover (Andrew Nembhard steals)110–113
- Q42.3Johnny Furphy makes free throw 2 of 2110–113
- Q42.3Johnny Furphy makes free throw 1 of 2110–112
- Q42.3Ayo Dosunmu personal take foul110–111
- Q42.3Johnny Furphy defensive rebound110–111
- Q42.9Aaron Nesmith blocks Coby White's driving layup110–111
- Q49.6Pascal Siakam personal foul110–111
- Q413.9Jarace Walker enters the game for Jay Huff110–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:00Jay Huff makes 28-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)CHI 105 – 105 IND · IND 22% → 49% +28IND 22% → 49%+28 pts
- Q41:18Pascal Siakam makes 8-foot pullup jump shotCHI 107 – 107 IND · IND 26% → 49% +24IND 26% → 49%+24 pts
- Q439.7Andrew Nembhard makes 11-foot step back jumpshotCHI 107 – 109 IND · IND 50% → 81% +31IND 50% → 81%+31 pts
- Q433.5Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot jump bank shot (Coby White assists)CHI 110 – 109 IND · CHI 17% → 69% +52CHI 17% → 69%+52 pts
- Q413.9Aaron Nesmith makes two point shotCHI 110 – 111 IND · IND 23% → 77% +55IND 23% → 77%+55 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -1.5
- ML CHI -125 / IND +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- CHI: Elo 61.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -114
- IND +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 118.5 – 117.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −45 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +78 Elo | CHI 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 110.229th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 118.524th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.0 | Margin | −8.327th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 106.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 114.921st of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.7 | Pace | 102.611th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–13 | Road vs home | 8–1627th of 30 |
| 25th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15146th of 30 |
| 21st of 301466 | Elo rating | 141425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–23 | 23–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 17–8 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 21–25 | 18–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–6 IND in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Dec 5IND 120 @ CHI 105Picked CHI 63%Miss
- Nov 29CHI 101 @ IND 103Picked CHI 57%Miss
- Mar 10IND 103 @ CHI 121Picked IND 61%Miss
- Mar 2CHI 112 @ IND 127Picked IND 82%Hit
- Jan 8CHI 113 @ IND 129Picked IND 64%Hit
- Dec 6IND 132 @ CHI 123Picked IND 60%Hit
- Mar 27IND 99 @ CHI 125Picked CHI 51%Hit
- Mar 13CHI 132 @ IND 129Picked IND 59%Miss