Los Angeles Lakers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints46
- Luka DoncicAssists12
- Luka DoncicRebounds7
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints23
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–118
- Q410.7shot clock turnover129–118
- Q432.9Jarred Vanderbilt defensive rebound129–118
- Q434.8Isaac Okoro misses 25-foot three point jumper129–118
- Q447.0Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound129–118
- Q449.7Marcus Smart misses free throw 2 of 2129–118
- Q449.7Lakers offensive team rebound129–118
- Q449.7Marcus Smart misses free throw 1 of 2129–118
- Q449.7Jevon Carter enters the game for Nikola Vucevic129–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:19Coby White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)LAL 78 – 73 CHI · CHI 25% → 33% +8CHI 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q38:02Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 81 – 73 CHI · LAL 67% → 75% +8LAL 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q37:07Coby White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)LAL 81 – 78 CHI · CHI 30% → 39% +9CHI 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q34:38Rui Hachimura makes 24-foot running jump shot (Gabe Vincent assists)LAL 89 – 80 CHI · LAL 71% → 80% +8LAL 71% → 80%+8 pts
- Q34:03Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 92 – 83 CHI · LAL 72% → 80% +8LAL 72% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML LAL -120 / CHI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- LAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 47.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -109
- CHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.5 – 117.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +28 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +15 Elo | CHI 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 117.98th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 119.726th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 113.614th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 115.524th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.4 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 5th of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 15–911th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 148426th of 30 |
| 13th of 301520 | Elo rating | 147820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–20 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–10 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–19 | 20–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 1–3 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.