Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints33
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Jaylen BrownRebounds8
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints22
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Jalen SmithRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–114
- Q40.2Payton Pritchard enters the game for Hugo Gonzalez111–114
- Q40.2Anfernee Simons enters the game for Neemias Queta111–114
- Q40.2Jalen Smith enters the game for Kevin Huerter111–114
- Q40.2Celtics Full timeout111–114
- Q41.0Kevin Huerter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)111–114
- Q414.2Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Payton Pritchard111–111
- Q414.2Kevin Huerter enters the game for Jalen Smith111–111
- Q414.2Bulls Full timeout111–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:57Patrick Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)BOS 100 – 102 CHI · CHI 41% → 58% +16CHI 41% → 58%+16 pts
- Q46:32Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 103 – 102 CHI · BOS 42% → 59% +17BOS 42% → 59%+17 pts
- Q45:26Matas Buzelis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)BOS 105 – 109 CHI · CHI 53% → 71% +17CHI 53% → 71%+17 pts
- Q414.2Jaylen Brown makes running layupBOS 111 – 111 CHI · BOS 7% → 51% +43BOS 7% → 51%+43 pts
- Q41.0Kevin Huerter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)BOS 111 – 114 CHI · CHI 50% → 100% +50CHI 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -3.5
- ML BOS -155 / CHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2.5
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- CHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 118.0 – 114.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1651 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | +28 | BOS: Usual rotation · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +74 Elo | BOS 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 119.926th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.9 | Margin | −2.022nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 113.614th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 115.624th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 103.92nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 14–912th of 30 |
| 30th of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 148028th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301651 | Elo rating | 147120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–19 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–14 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25 | 20–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–1 CHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Jan 5CHI 101 @ BOS 115Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Jan 29CHI 100 @ BOS 122Picked BOS 89%Hit
- Dec 21BOS 123 @ CHI 98Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 19CHI 117 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 89%Miss
- Nov 29BOS 138 @ CHI 129Picked BOS 84%Hit
- Mar 23BOS 124 @ CHI 113Picked BOS 59%Hit
- Feb 22BOS 129 @ CHI 112Picked BOS 58%Hit
- Nov 28CHI 97 @ BOS 124Picked BOS 71%Hit