Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- Andrew NembhardAssists13
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Hawks- CJ McCollumPoints23
- Dyson DanielsAssists9
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–132
- Q419.1Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound116–132
- Q422.0Quenton Jackson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot116–132
- Q428.5Mouhamed Gueye makes driving layup116–132
- Q448.3Quenton Jackson makes 1-foot two point shot116–130
- Q456.7Mouhamed Gueye makes dunk114–130
- Q456.7Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound114–128
- Q41:00Corey Kispert misses 24-foot three point jumper114–128
- Q41:20Quenton Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2114–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:51Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 67 – 60 ATL · IND 50% → 59% +9IND 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q311:04Dyson Daniels makes 26-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)IND 69 – 63 ATL · ATL 35% → 44% +9ATL 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q32:24Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)IND 90 – 85 ATL · ATL 30% → 40% +11ATL 30% → 40%+11 pts
- Q32:00Mouhamed Gueye makes 26-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)IND 92 – 88 ATL · ATL 33% → 44% +11ATL 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q31:18Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mouhamed Gueye assists)IND 92 – 91 ATL · ATL 43% → 55% +12ATL 43% → 55%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -5.5
- ML IND +185 / ATL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.2%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -197
- IND +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 114.5 – 120.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | −17 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +124 Elo | ATL 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 67.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 117.49th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 118.725th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.1 | Margin | −1.320th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 112.621st of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 113.818th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.4 | Pace | 103.83rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–19 | Road vs home | 8–1324th of 30 |
| 6th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 15077th of 30 |
| 25th of 301422 | Elo rating | 147021st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–23 | 23–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–29 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–3 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Oct 31ATL 128 @ IND 108Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Mar 8IND 118 @ ATL 120Picked IND 51%Miss
- Mar 6IND 118 @ ATL 124Picked ATL 56%Hit
- Feb 1ATL 127 @ IND 132Picked IND 77%Hit
- Apr 14ATL 115 @ IND 157Picked IND 70%Hit
- Jan 12IND 126 @ ATL 108Picked ATL 51%Miss
- Jan 5ATL 116 @ IND 150Picked IND 63%Hit
- Nov 21IND 157 @ ATL 152Picked ATL 54%Miss