Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Amen ThompsonAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Hawks- CJ McCollumPoints23
- Dyson DanielsAssists7
- Christian KolokoRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–86
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–86
- Q415.2Aaron Holiday defensive rebound104–86
- Q418.4Asa Newell misses 8-foot two point shot104–86
- Q435.3Asa Newell defensive rebound104–86
- Q438.2Jeff Green misses 24-foot three point jumper104–86
- Q458.0Vit Krejci makes 11-foot two point shot (Keaton Wallace assists)104–86
- Q41:08Aaron Holiday personal foul104–84
- Q41:23Vit Krejci defensive rebound104–84
- Q41:26Aaron Holiday misses driving layup104–84
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:26CJ McCollum makes 25-foot running jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)HOU 40 – 40 ATL · ATL 28% → 35% +8ATL 28% → 35%+8 pts
- Q311:22Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)HOU 43 – 45 ATL · ATL 33% → 41% +8ATL 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q310:42Jabari Smith Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 46 – 45 ATL · HOU 58% → 67% +9HOU 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q37:13Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)HOU 56 – 49 ATL · HOU 75% → 82% +7HOU 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q34:34Corey Kispert makes 26-foot running jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)HOU 63 – 60 ATL · ATL 20% → 28% +8ATL 20% → 28%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML HOU -270 / ATL +220
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.5%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -234
- ATL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 115.5 – 109.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | 0 | −67 | HOU: Usual rotation · ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −45 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +89 Elo | HOU 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 117.77th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 118.425th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.8 | Margin | −0.719th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 103.83rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 9–1322nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 9th of 301568 | Elo rating | 149815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−67 Elo- Jalen Johnson left calf tightness−45 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–24 | 25–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–23 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–25 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–2 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.