Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints21
- Dyson DanielsAssists9
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds14
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints21
- Luka GarzaAssists6
- Jaylen BrownRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–106
- Q423.9Hugo Gonzalez makes 24-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)117–106
- Q435.5Amari Williams defensive rebound117–103
- Q437.6Keaton Wallace misses 26-foot three point jumper117–103
- Q440.6Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound117–103
- Q443.7Keaton Wallace misses 15-foot pullup jump shot117–103
- Q451.8Amari Williams makes 1-foot layup (Baylor Scheierman assists)117–103
- Q457.1Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound117–101
- Q459.4Hugo Gonzalez blocks Corey Kispert 's 5-foot driving layup117–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:47Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)ATL 12 – 5 BOS · ATL 45% → 51% +7ATL 45% → 51%+7 pts
- Q15:28Luke Kennard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 20 – 7 BOS · ATL 59% → 65% +6ATL 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q14:15Dyson Daniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 23 – 9 BOS · ATL 61% → 68% +6ATL 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q27:28Vit Krejci makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 47 – 32 BOS · ATL 68% → 75% +7ATL 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q310:24Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 65 – 50 BOS · ATL 75% → 81% +7ATL 75% → 81%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML ATL +170 / BOS -205
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7
- BOS 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 75.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -181
- ATL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 113.5 – 119.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1647 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −19 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +198 Elo | BOS 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 116.613th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 109.92nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +6.73rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 118.42nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.0 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 14–79th of 30 |
| 8th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 147730th of 30 |
| 18th of 301478 | Elo rating | 16472nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–24 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 16–16 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 19–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–4 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Jan 17BOS 132 @ ATL 106Picked BOS 59%Hit
- Jan 18ATL 119 @ BOS 115Picked BOS 78%Miss
- Nov 12ATL 117 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 89%Miss
- Nov 4BOS 123 @ ATL 93Picked BOS 80%Hit
- Mar 28BOS 122 @ ATL 123Picked BOS 79%Miss
- Mar 25BOS 118 @ ATL 120Picked BOS 77%Miss
- Feb 7ATL 117 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Nov 26ATL 103 @ BOS 113Picked BOS 58%Hit