Portland Trail Blazers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints19
- Caleb LoveAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds15
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints23
- Neemias QuetaAssists6
- Jaylen BrownRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–102
- Q410.6Sam Hauser defensive rebound94–102
- Q412.4Toumani Camara misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot94–102
- Q417.4Derrick White lost ball turnover (Jerami Grant steals)94–102
- Q417.4Jerami Grant vs. Derrick White (Toumani Camara gains possession)94–102
- Q421.0Toumani Camara bad pass
turnover (Derrick White steals)94–102
- Q423.5Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Payton Pritchard94–102
- Q423.5Trail Blazers Full timeout94–102
- Q424.1Derrick White makes 29-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)94–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:52Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three pointer (Neemias Queta assists)POR 2 – 11 BOS · BOS 83% → 87% +4BOS 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q17:35Shaedon Sharpe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 5 – 11 BOS · POR 13% → 17% +4POR 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q35.5Jaylen Brown makes 15-foot fade away jump shotPOR 65 – 75 BOS · BOS 88% → 91% +4BOS 88% → 91%+4 pts
- Q411:46Robert Williams III makes alley oop dunk (Jerami Grant assists)POR 67 – 75 BOS · POR 8% → 12% +4POR 8% → 12%+4 pts
- Q411:13Anfernee Simons makes 15-foot driving floating jump shotPOR 67 – 77 BOS · BOS 88% → 92% +4BOS 88% → 92%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML POR +275 / BOS -345
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7
- BOS 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 76.0%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -291
- POR +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 107.5 – 116.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1643 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −8 | POR: Missing Deni Avdija −36 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | −12 | POR crossed 3 time zones and BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +200 Elo | BOS 76.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 74.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 74.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 116.912th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 110.33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.7 | Margin | +6.63rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 118.92nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 112.113th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 13–710th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 147530th of 30 |
| 18th of 301487 | Elo rating | 16432nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+7 Elo- Deni Avdija low back strain−36 Elo
Celtics
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–20 | 25–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 16–15 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–23 | 19–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–4 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.