Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints34
- Cooper FlaggAssists5
- Cooper FlaggRebounds12
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints21
- Amen ThompsonAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–111
- Q47.1Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound107–111
- Q49.0Cooper Flagg misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot107–111
- Q414.4Mavericks Full timeout107–111
- Q414.4Tari Eason makes 3-foot dunk (Kevin Durant assists)107–111
- Q424.4Tari Eason defensive rebound107–109
- Q425.0Cooper Flagg misses driving layup107–109
- Q428.6Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun107–109
- Q428.6Mavericks Full timeout107–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:14Daniel Gafford makes 3-foot dunkDAL 103 – 105 HOU · DAL 13% → 26% +13DAL 13% → 26%+13 pts
- Q41:54Amen Thompson makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Alperen Sengun assists)DAL 103 – 107 HOU · HOU 75% → 88% +13HOU 75% → 88%+13 pts
- Q41:34Cooper Flagg makes 5-foot two point shotDAL 105 – 107 HOU · DAL 10% → 24% +14DAL 10% → 24%+14 pts
- Q447.0Naji Marshall makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Max Christie assists)DAL 107 – 107 HOU · DAL 18% → 46% +28DAL 18% → 46%+28 pts
- Q428.6Alperen Sengun makes driving layupDAL 107 – 109 HOU · HOU 53% → 87% +34HOU 53% → 87%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -10.5
- ML DAL +330 / HOU -425
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6
- HOU 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 72.1%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -348
- DAL +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 106.0 – 116.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | −2 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +165 Elo | HOU 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 80.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 79.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Points scored | 116.117th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 110.03rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.5 | Margin | +6.14th of 30 |
| 27th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 116.35th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 110.33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.6 | Pace | 98.127th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 305–14 | Road vs home | 16–42nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 21st of 301460 | Elo rating | 15789th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–26 | 22–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 19–23 |
| Underdog | 17–14 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 21–27 | 20–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–5 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Jan 3HOU 104 @ DAL 110Picked HOU 73%Miss
- Dec 6HOU 109 @ DAL 122Picked HOU 69%Miss
- Nov 3DAL 102 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Mar 14DAL 96 @ HOU 133Picked HOU 82%Hit
- Feb 8HOU 105 @ DAL 116Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Jan 1DAL 99 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Oct 31HOU 108 @ DAL 102Picked DAL 69%Miss
- Apr 7HOU 136 @ DAL 147Picked DAL 69%Hit