Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints29
- Jalen JohnsonAssists11
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points21
- Davion MitchellAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–115
- Q419.1Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)127–115
- Q427.2Keaton Wallace makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Zaccharie Risacher assists)127–112
- Q445.8Jahmir Young makes free throw 1 of 1124–112
- Q445.8Keaton Wallace shooting foul124–111
- Q445.8Jahmir Young makes 6-foot turnaround jump shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)124–111
- Q458.8Kel'el Ware defensive rebound124–109
- Q41:01Corey Kispert misses 25-foot three point jumper124–109
- Q41:23Keaton Wallace enters the game for CJ McCollum124–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:57CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)ATL 24 – 19 MIA · ATL 53% → 60% +7ATL 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q12:03CJ McCollum makes 22-foot three point jumperATL 27 – 19 MIA · ATL 60% → 67% +7ATL 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q38:11Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zaccharie Risacher assists)ATL 74 – 61 MIA · ATL 78% → 85% +6ATL 78% → 85%+6 pts
- Q37:03Myron Gardner makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Davion Mitchell assists)ATL 74 – 69 MIA · MIA 26% → 35% +9MIA 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q33:16Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 88 – 75 MIA · ATL 82% → 88% +6ATL 82% → 88%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -1.5
- ML ATL -102 / MIA -118
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- MIA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 60.8%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -107
- ATL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 117.0 – 118.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | −13 | ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Missing Norman Powell −22, Tyler Herro −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +76 Elo | MIA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 120.02nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 117.822nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 110.55th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.7 | Pace | 106.11st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 16–910th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15155th of 30 |
| 17th of 301479 | Elo rating | 150515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−27 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu fractured tooth−13 Elo
Heat
−13 Elo- Norman Powell personal−22 Elo
- Tyler Herro rib injury−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–26 | 29–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–16 | 13–11 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–6 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Dec 26MIA 126 @ ATL 111Picked ATL 57%Miss
- Mar 27ATL 112 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 53%Hit
- Feb 26ATL 109 @ MIA 131Picked MIA 58%Hit
- Feb 24MIA 86 @ ATL 98Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Dec 28MIA 110 @ ATL 120Picked MIA 51%Miss
- Apr 9MIA 117 @ ATL 111Picked MIA 61%Hit
- Jan 19ATL 109 @ MIA 108Picked MIA 72%Miss
- Dec 22ATL 113 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 55%Hit