Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints29
- Ayo DosunmuAssists9
- Ayo DosunmuRebounds8
Heat- Pelle LarssonPoints22
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–118
- Q45.2Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot125–118
- Q411.5Patrick Williams makes free throw 2 of 2125–116
- Q411.5Patrick Williams makes free throw 1 of 2124–116
- Q411.5Bam Adebayo personal foul123–116
- Q416.7Ayo Dosunmu defensive rebound123–116
- Q419.2Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 21-foot jumper123–116
- Q421.3Dru Smith offensive rebound123–116
- Q424.8Andrew Wiggins misses 26-foot three point jumper123–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:58Ayo Dosunmu makes 26-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)CHI 109 – 106 MIA · CHI 46% → 70% +24CHI 46% → 70%+24 pts
- Q42:46Pelle Larsson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)CHI 109 – 109 MIA · MIA 29% → 54% +25MIA 29% → 54%+25 pts
- Q42:09Ayo Dosunmu makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)CHI 114 – 111 MIA · CHI 47% → 75% +28CHI 47% → 75%+28 pts
- Q41:20Andrew Wiggins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dru Smith assists)CHI 116 – 116 MIA · MIA 19% → 52% +33MIA 19% → 52%+33 pts
- Q41:12Matas Buzelis makes running layup (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 118 – 116 MIA · CHI 48% → 73% +25CHI 48% → 73%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML CHI +170 / MIA -205
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5.5
- MIA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 71.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -181
- CHI +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.0 – 118.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −92 | −15 | CHI: Missing Coby White −26 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Missing Norman Powell −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | CHI crossed 1 time zone and MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +156 Elo | MIA 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 73.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 119.83rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 118.223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.1 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.6 | Pace | 105.91st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 308–14 | Road vs home | 15–89th of 30 |
| 24th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15184th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301453 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−92 Elo- Coby White right calf−26 Elo
Heat
−15 Elo- Norman Powell not with team−22 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–25 | 28–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 12–10 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–27 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 5–4 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Jan 29MIA 116 @ CHI 113Picked MIA 54%Hit
- Nov 21MIA 143 @ CHI 107Picked CHI 55%Miss
- Apr 9MIA 111 @ CHI 119Picked MIA 54%Miss
- Mar 8CHI 114 @ MIA 109Picked MIA 64%Miss
- Feb 4MIA 124 @ CHI 133Picked MIA 59%Miss
- Dec 16CHI 116 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Dec 14CHI 124 @ MIA 116Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 20MIA 118 @ CHI 100Picked MIA 52%Hit