Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints21
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints23
- Coby WhiteAssists8
- Kevin HuerterRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–113
- Q41.5Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound116–113
- Q41.5Coby White misses 28-foot three point jumper116–113
- Q44.6Dru Smith enters the game for Norman Powell116–113
- Q44.6Coby White enters the game for Isaac Okoro116–113
- Q44.6Bulls Full timeout116–113
- Q44.6Pelle Larsson makes 1-foot driving dunk (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)116–113
- Q47.1Norman Powell enters the game for Dru Smith114–113
- Q47.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Coby White114–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:05Ayo Dosunmu makes 2-foot layup (Nikola Vucevic assists)MIA 110 – 107 CHI · CHI 10% → 22% +12CHI 10% → 22%+12 pts
- Q41:39Norman Powell makes driving layupMIA 112 – 107 CHI · MIA 81% → 92% +12MIA 81% → 92%+12 pts
- Q410.1Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2MIA 112 – 111 CHI · CHI 4% → 19% +15CHI 4% → 19%+15 pts
- Q48.9Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2MIA 113 – 111 CHI · MIA 83% → 97% +14MIA 83% → 97%+14 pts
- Q47.1Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2MIA 114 – 113 CHI · CHI 2% → 15% +13CHI 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML MIA -130 / CHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -119
- CHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 120.0 – 117.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHI and MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | −3 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +4 Elo | MIA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.8 | Points scored | 117.78th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 119.826th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −2.122nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 113.813th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 115.824th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 18th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 15–1013th of 30 |
| 4th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 148824th of 30 |
| 16th of 301491 | Elo rating | 145922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–21 | 23–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–10 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 21–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–5 CHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.
- Nov 21MIA 143 @ CHI 107Picked CHI 55%Miss
- Apr 9MIA 111 @ CHI 119Picked MIA 54%Miss
- Mar 8CHI 114 @ MIA 109Picked MIA 64%Miss
- Feb 4MIA 124 @ CHI 133Picked MIA 59%Miss
- Dec 16CHI 116 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Dec 14CHI 124 @ MIA 116Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 20MIA 118 @ CHI 100Picked MIA 52%Hit
- Nov 18MIA 97 @ CHI 102Picked MIA 61%Miss