Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints16
- Yuki KawamuraAssists6
- Patrick WilliamsRebounds10
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints20
- Kasparas JakucionisAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–134
- Q41.5shot clock turnover91–134
- Q423.3Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound91–134
- Q426.0Lachlan Olbrich misses 27-foot three point jumper91–134
- Q437.1Jahmir Young makes driving layup (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)91–134
- Q453.3Patrick Williams makes free throw 2 of 291–132
- Q453.3Bulls offensive team rebound90–132
- Q453.3Patrick Williams misses free throw 1 of 290–132
- Q453.3Vladislav Goldin shooting foul90–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:10Andrew Wiggins makes 30-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)CHI 0 – 5 MIA · MIA 69% → 75% +5MIA 69% → 75%+5 pts
- Q110:54Pelle Larsson makes 26-foot running jump shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)CHI 0 – 8 MIA · MIA 75% → 79% +5MIA 75% → 79%+5 pts
- Q110:09Ayo Dosunmu makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 5 – 8 MIA · CHI 24% → 29% +5CHI 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q19:10Pelle Larsson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)CHI 5 – 13 MIA · MIA 75% → 79% +5MIA 75% → 79%+5 pts
- Q18:49Bam Adebayo makes 27-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)CHI 5 – 16 MIA · MIA 79% → 84% +4MIA 79% → 84%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML CHI +180 / MIA -218
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 58.9%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -192
- CHI +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.0 – 119.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIA and CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | −20 | CHI: Missing Tre Jones −19, Kevin Huerter −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Missing Norman Powell −20 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +62 Elo | MIA 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 118.424th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.313th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 112.421st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.9 | Pace | 106.21st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 309–14 | Road vs home | 15–911th of 30 |
| 25th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15184th of 30 |
| 18th of 301467 | Elo rating | 148315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−31 Elo- Tre Jones left hamstring strain−19 Elo
- Kevin Huerter low back muscle spasms−2 Elo
Heat
−20 Elo- Norman Powell personal−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–25 | 28–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 12–11 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–27 | 26–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 6–4 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.
- Jan 31CHI 125 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 64%Miss
- Jan 29MIA 116 @ CHI 113Picked MIA 54%Hit
- Nov 21MIA 143 @ CHI 107Picked CHI 55%Miss
- Apr 9MIA 111 @ CHI 119Picked MIA 54%Miss
- Mar 8CHI 114 @ MIA 109Picked MIA 64%Miss
- Feb 4MIA 124 @ CHI 133Picked MIA 59%Miss
- Dec 16CHI 116 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Dec 14CHI 124 @ MIA 116Picked MIA 63%Miss