Charlotte Hornets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints24
- LaMelo BallAssists4
- Moussa DiabateRebounds12
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Amen ThompsonAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–99
- Q42.6Moussa Diabate defensive rebound109–99
- Q44.8Jeff Green misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot109–99
- Q47.1shot clock turnover109–99
- Q431.2Clint Capela makes running dunk (JD Davison assists)109–99
- Q435.3Kon Knueppel bad pass
turnover (Isaiah Crawford steals)109–97
- Q444.5Hornets offensive team rebound109–97
- Q444.5Brandon Miller misses tip shot109–97
- Q444.5Brandon Miller offensive rebound109–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:32Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)CHA 53 – 46 HOU · HOU 31% → 39% +8HOU 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q21:04Josh Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 56 – 46 HOU · CHA 61% → 69% +8CHA 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q249.7Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 56 – 49 HOU · HOU 31% → 39% +8HOU 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q39:08Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 68 – 58 HOU · CHA 63% → 72% +8CHA 63% → 72%+8 pts
- Q35:12Sion James makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 80 – 70 HOU · CHA 66% → 75% +9CHA 66% → 75%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML CHA +154 / HOU -185
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -1.5
- HOU 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 44.4%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -165
- CHA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 107.0 – 111.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +51 | −12 | CHA: Missing Coby White −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Tari Eason −9 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +39 Elo | CHA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 115.517th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 110.13rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +5.45th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 116.05th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 110.54th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.3 | Pace | 98.128th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 17–53rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149520th of 30 |
| 13th of 301537 | Elo rating | 15659th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+51 Elo- Coby White left calf strain−16 Elo
Rockets
−12 Elo- Tari Eason left leg injury−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–21 | 22–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 19–26 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 20–31 | 21–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–3 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.