Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints28
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Neemias QuetaRebounds19
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints15
- Amen ThompsonAssists4
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–93
- Q42.2Jeff Green makes 24-foot three pointer (Aaron Holiday assists)114–93
- Q415.7shot clock turnover114–90
- Q435.6Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound114–90
- Q437.9Jeff Green misses 26-foot three point jumper114–90
- Q450.6Baylor Scheierman makes free throw 2 of 2114–90
- Q450.6Baylor Scheierman makes free throw 1 of 2113–90
- Q450.6Aaron Holiday personal foul112–90
- Q452.5Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound112–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q231.1Jabari Smith Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (JD Davison assists)BOS 47 – 42 HOU · HOU 44% → 52% +9HOU 44% → 52%+9 pts
- Q311:38Amen Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)BOS 49 – 45 HOU · HOU 46% → 55% +9HOU 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q310:36Baylor Scheierman makes 27-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 52 – 45 HOU · BOS 46% → 55% +9BOS 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q39:00Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)BOS 58 – 48 HOU · BOS 56% → 65% +9BOS 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q38:32Baylor Scheierman makes 24-foot running jump shot (Derrick White assists)BOS 61 – 48 HOU · BOS 66% → 74% +8BOS 66% → 74%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML BOS +245 / HOU -305
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2.5
- HOU 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 59.4%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -260
- BOS +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 101.0 – 109.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1640 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −26 | +19 | BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −47, Sam Hauser −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +66 Elo | HOU 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 71.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 116.015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.9 | Points allowed | 110.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.1 | Margin | +6.05th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 116.25th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 110.24th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 98.227th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 17–42nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 149221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301640 | Elo rating | 15868th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−26 Elo- Jaylen Brown left hamstring - injury management−47 Elo
- Sam Hauser right thumb injury−3 Elo
Rockets
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–22 | 22–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–17 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 19–31 | 21–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.