Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints25
- Ryan RollinsAssists7
- Bobby PortisRebounds12
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints30
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Jaylen BrownRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game79–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter79–107
- Q41.3shot clock turnover79–107
- Q427.7Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound79–107
- Q428.7Gary Trent Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper79–107
- Q429.4Thanasis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound79–107
- Q432.3Andre Jackson Jr. misses 22-foot three point jumper79–107
- Q447.9Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound79–107
- Q450.9Jordan Walsh misses 25-foot three point jumper79–107
- Q41:06Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)79–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:20Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 12 – 0 BOS · MIL 33% → 39% +6MIL 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q18:53Jaylen Brown makes 22-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)MIL 12 – 3 BOS · BOS 60% → 67% +6BOS 60% → 67%+6 pts
- Q16:41Derrick White makes 28-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)MIL 18 – 11 BOS · BOS 63% → 69% +6BOS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q13:46Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)MIL 23 – 15 BOS · MIL 28% → 34% +6MIL 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q132.2Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 26 – 23 BOS · BOS 68% → 74% +6BOS 68% → 74%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -12.5
- ML MIL +455 / BOS -625
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -12
- BOS 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 87.6%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -478
- MIL +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 102.5 – 115.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −98 | −7 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +339 Elo | BOS 87.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 80.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 81.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 116.315th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 109.72nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.0 | Margin | +6.63rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 118.32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 111.611th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.9 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–16 | Road vs home | 15–89th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 147430th of 30 |
| 25th of 301419 | Elo rating | 16312nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–27 | 26–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 17–17 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–28 | 19–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–5 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Dec 11BOS 101 @ MIL 116Picked BOS 77%Miss
- Dec 6MIL 105 @ BOS 111Picked BOS 74%Hit
- Nov 10BOS 113 @ MIL 107Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Oct 28MIL 108 @ BOS 119Picked BOS 77%Hit
- Apr 9BOS 91 @ MIL 104Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Mar 20MIL 119 @ BOS 122Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Jan 11BOS 102 @ MIL 135Picked BOS 53%Miss
- Nov 22MIL 116 @ BOS 119Picked BOS 54%Hit