Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Myles TurnerPoints21
- Ryan RollinsAssists8
- Myles TurnerRebounds14
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints23
- Bub CarringtonAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–109
- Q46.5Khris Middleton defensive rebound99–109
- Q48.9Kyle Kuzma misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot99–109
- Q414.3Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 299–109
- Q414.3Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 299–108
- Q414.3AJ Green personal foul99–107
- Q414.3Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound99–107
- Q414.4Kyshawn George blocks Ryan Rollins 's 22-foot step back jumpshot99–107
- Q423.7Ryan Rollins enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.99–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:08Ryan Rollins makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 94 – 99 WSH · MIL 5% → 16% +11MIL 5% → 16%+11 pts
- Q42:24Kyle Kuzma makes 8-foot turnaround jump shotMIL 96 – 99 WSH · MIL 13% → 25% +12MIL 13% → 25%+12 pts
- Q42:13Kyshawn George makes driving layupMIL 96 – 101 WSH · WSH 76% → 88% +12WSH 76% → 88%+12 pts
- Q41:30Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)MIL 99 – 101 WSH · MIL 7% → 28% +21MIL 7% → 28%+21 pts
- Q41:19Alex Sarr makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (Kyshawn George assists)MIL 99 – 103 WSH · WSH 73% → 89% +16WSH 73% → 89%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML MIL -125 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 50.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 112.5 – 111.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1313 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −104 | −29 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +6 Elo | MIL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 112.326th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 122.829th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.9 | Margin | −10.530th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 108.528th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 118.629th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.9 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 21st of 309–15 | Road vs home | 7–1528th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15078th of 30 |
| 24th of 301429 | Elo rating | 131330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−104 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–26 | 19–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 18–24 |
| Overs–unders | 18–27 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–3 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Dec 31WSH 114 @ MIL 113Picked MIL 80%Miss
- Dec 1MIL 126 @ WSH 129Picked MIL 78%Miss
- Oct 22WSH 120 @ MIL 133Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Feb 21MIL 104 @ WSH 101Picked MIL 65%Hit
- Dec 21WSH 101 @ MIL 112Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Nov 30WSH 114 @ MIL 124Picked MIL 88%Hit
- Apr 2MIL 113 @ WSH 117Picked MIL 68%Miss
- Nov 24WSH 128 @ MIL 131Picked MIL 79%Hit